Taiwan’s Aging Air Force
Reports from Taiwan are that the ROC air force has “parked” nine of its Mirage 2000-5 jets because of a lack of spare parts supplied by France. Undoubtedly, as time goes by, more and more planes will be put in reserve as Taiwan’s fleet of Mirages, F-16s and Indigenous Defense Fighters grow old from use and lack of parts. Meanwhile, China’s air power and missile forces across the Strait grow in both numbers and sophistication. As a recent RAND study noted,
Chinese military capabilities have advanced rapidly over the past decade. In addition to the progress the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has made with its stockpile of SRBMs, China has deployed or is deploying modern fighter aircraft, such as the Su-27/J-11, Su-30, and J-10, in sizable numbers….Our analysis indicates that China’s ability to suppress or close the ROCAF’s bases could gives the PLA Air Force (PLAAF) an almost overwhelming numerical advantage that-coupled with the rough qualitative parity that now exists between the two sides-could allow China to attain air superiority over Taiwan and the strait. This in turn would permit the PLAAF to pound Taiwan with air-delivered precision-guided munitions (PGMs) in preparation for an invasion attempt or as a coercive bombardment.
Further…the United States is unlikely to be able to compensate for the hundreds of ROCAF fighters burning on their parking ramps, trapped behind cratered runways, or hiding in underground shelters. The danger to both ROCAF and USAF operations in the Taiwan Strait is sufficiently grave that a credible case can be made that the air war for Taiwan could essentially be over before much of the Blue air forces have even fired a shot.
Meanwhile, the Obama administration, like the Bush administration before it, is sitting on its hands when it comes to providing Taiwan with the 60 F-16C/Ds that the island’s air force would like to buy-and obviously needs.
Under the Taiwan Relations Act (1979), the U.S. is obligated to provide Taiwan with the military capabilities required to defend itself. In the past, the Congress has been a key guardian of that pledge. If the Obama team fails to move forward in an expedited manner following the president’s trip to China, it would be nice to see Congress reassert its prerogatives in what was-with the passage of the act 30 years ago-one of its finest hours.
Gary Schmitt is the director of the Program on Advanced Strategic Studies at the American Enterprise Institute.
