What Would Mullah Omar Think?

What would the boys over in the Quetta shura have made of Barack Obama’s West Point speech?

All told, I think they’d be a little down.  Sure, they’d take some consolation in the start-to-withdraw timeline that’s supposed to begin in the summer of 2011.  And they might nod their heads and think, “Ah, America…truly a weak horse!” at the nuclear-free and economic-crisis rhetoric, but that’s more a measure of how deeply entrenched their misunderstanding of the United States is.  Their main thought would probably be: “McChrystal has 30,000 more rifles.  What we’ve spent the last three years working toward is at risk.  We must wait to return to Kandahar.  Let us hope to live to see the day.” (Foreigners always speak English like that.)

In sum, the president will change the enemy’s battlefield calculus.  This won’t be the decisive moment, but it can set the stage for big things, particularly in 2011.  One of the reasons to anticipate the coming congressional testimony from McChrystal and others is that they will not only report on their plans for the future, but they will update our understanding of what’s been happening this year.  There’s been a lot more fighting in recent months than there has almost since the 2001 invasion, particularly in the Taliban strongholds of Helmand and Kandahar provinces.  As was the case in regard to Iraq, Washington’s grasp of the tactical situation is probably about six months behind battlefield realities in Afghanistan.

We shouldn’t worry too much about Taliban morale, but at least it’s a diversion from the domestic political deconstruction — how will the Democratic Left respond?  Will Obama get more support from Republicans than his own base? — that passes for strategic wisdom in Washington.

Tom Donnelly is director of the Center for Defense Studies.