A Non-decision on ANSF
The White House, it seems, has punted on the decision to double the size of the Afghan National Security Forces. The question of setting a target end-strength of 400,000 for the ANSF — as advocated by Gen. McChrystal, the Afghan defense minister, and others in Afghanistan’s military — will likely be taken up in late 2010, when the administration plans to hold a major review of the progress in Afghanistan.
At a pre-speech press conference on Tuesday, a senior administration official noted that the proposed 400,000 figure “doesn’t have much weight with us,” because it’s “more than we can accurately program for and predict the requirement for at this stage.”
There’s a certain irony — not to mention a strategic disconnect — in announcing a date by which the security mission in Afghanistan will be transferred to the Afghans, as the president did Tuesday, while at the same time preventing the country’s government from pursuing in earnest the force it has insisted it requires.
Yesterday, however, Gen. McChrystal indicated that the expanded 400,000 target remains a key, if distant, goal. “It will take at least four years by our computations to get to 400,000,” he explained, “so what I think we need to do is we need to develop as quickly as we can and that is what we are doing now.”
Meanwhile, the commander of the coalition training effort, Lt. Gen. William Caldwell, appears to be laying the groundwork for a push toward the expanded target, if authorized. On Tuesday he told the AP, “Although that is a goal and where we think it could eventually go to, it’s not a hard, firm, fixed number.”
It’s certainly reasonable to focus on short-term force-sizing goals — approaching the issue “in smaller increments,” as the administration official explained in the press conference Tuesday — in light of the ongoing ANSF recruiting and retention challenges. But there are good reasons to set the bar high. As retired general James Dubik noted recently, “There’s a significant psychological effect on the Taliban if we announce we’re going to build an Afghan security force of 400,000,” and “we’re going to miss that opportunity.”
And finally, as I’ve noted previously, the demand for Afghan forces among American commanders will only increase in the coming 18 months. As Brigadier General Larry Nicholson, commander of the Marines in Helmand province, explained today: ”I got 10,000 Marines. I have 2,000 Afghans…I get asked all the time, ‘How many Afghans do you want?’ I want one to one. Every time one of our squads is going out, I want an Afghan squad with it.” That’s a high bar worth clearing.
Tim Sullivan is a research fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.
