“Rough Patch” Roundup

News out of East Asia has been more troubling than usual over the past few weeks. In brief:

• Col. Liu Mingfu of the PLA published China’s Dream, a book in which he writes that China’s ultimate goal is to become the world’s primary superpower in the 21st century. Liu reportedly depicts the U.S. and China as in a competition for global dominance and emphasizes the importance of Chinese military superiority. “To save itself, to save the world,” he writes, “China must prepare to become the [world's] helmsman.” Though this would seem to call the “peaceful rise” concept into question, some commentators have argued that China’s Dream presents nothing more than the view of an individual soldier. That the book’s publication must have been sanctioned by the PLA — the military of one of the world’s most heavily censored countries — is apparently irrelevant.

• The Chinese government announced last week that it would slow the growth of its defense budget in the coming year, likely due to fiscal restraints in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. This was good news for U.S. and allied militaries, which have been increasingly concerned by the PLA’s modernization. But Harsh Pant of King’s College, London, yesterday reminded us that the Chinese government’s official figures “do not include the cost of new weapon purchases, research or other big-ticket items for China’s highly secretive military and as a result, the real figures are much higher than the revealed amount.”

• Deputy Secretary of State James Steinberg and National Security Council Senior Director Jeffrey Bader traveled to Beijing last week in hopes of pushing past a rough patch in U.S.-China relations. Foreign Policy’s Josh Rogin sums up the trip: they “went to China with the understanding that they would have substantive discussions on some key issues of U.S. interest, but the Chinese side used the opportunity to try to bargain for an end to U.S. arms sales to Taiwan, something Beijing has wanted for decades and now feels bold enough to demand.” The Chinese were not interested in discussing issues of supposedly mutual concern — Iran, North Korea, and climate change — instead wanting to talk about “Taiwan, Taiwan, and Taiwan.” The Obama administration’s diplomacy continues to impress.

• Several hundred Tibetans have been arrested — probably by the People’s Armed Police — ahead of the anniversary of the fatal unrest that struck Tibet in 2008. No comment as of yet from the State Department or White House.

• China, a country with no Arctic coast and no viable claim to Arctic territory, has inserted itself into the discussion over the disposition of territorial disputes at the North Pole. “‘The Arctic belongs to all the people around the world as no nation has sovereignty over it,’…said Chinese Rear Admiral Yin Zhuo, in comments relayed by the official China News Service on March 5.” Of course, the personal view of a Chinese admiral does not represent the official position of the Chinese government…but wait, we’ve been down this road before.

• Finally, Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense has indicated that the cross-Strait air balance has continued to tilt in China’s favor. As the AFP put it, “China now has better fighter jets than Taiwan.” Unfortunately, the Obama administration, like the Bush administration before it, refuses to sell new, upgraded F-16s to Taiwan for fear of angering China. Instead of abiding by its legal commitments as defined by the Taiwan Relations Act, the administration is allowing Taiwan’s air force to atrophy. Are policymakers considering the implications of this? The smaller and more antiquated the Taiwan air force is, the greater the number of American pilots in harm’s way should the U.S. ever need to go to the island’s defense. It’s not clear that anybody is doing this math, as simple as it is.

Michael Mazza is a research assistant at the American Enterprise Institute.

(Flickr/Fran Simó)