Gates Weighs In

Defense Secretary Robert Gates made news on CNN’s Sunday talkie “State of the Union,” but press coverage seems to have missed the lede–a subtler but larger point.  While reporters emphasized Gates’ point that an artificial timeline for withdrawal from Afghanistan would be a terrible idea, the secretary was even more compelling in describing the greater strategic effects of anything perceived as a defeat.

“The reality is, failure in Afghanistan would be a huge setback for the United States,” Gates admitted.  It would be perceived by the extremist Islamic groups as a victory over the U.S., similar to the former Soviet Union’s withdrawal from the country in 1989: The “Taliban and al Qaida, as far as they’re concerned, defeated one superpower. For them to be seen to defeat a second, I think, would have catastrophic consequences in terms of energizing the extremist movement, al Qaida recruitment, operations, fundraising, and so on.”

Gates has been relatively mum while the controversy has built over Gen. Stanley McChrystal’s Afghanistan assessment and the requirement for as many as 40,000 additional forces.  It would seem that, in conjunction with Adm. Mike Mullen, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, and Gen. David Petraeus, commander of U.S. Central Command, Gates is adding support to McChrystal’s recommendations–also putting himself athwart Vice President Biden, White House chief of staff Rahm Emanuel, and those in the administration arguing for a lesser commitment.

Gates is also sending a message to President Obama. In the past, when Gates has called upon Soviet analogies in Afghanistan, it has been to fret that too many U.S. troops would look like an occupation.  He seems to have realized that there is a worse Russian precedent.

Tom Donnelly is the director of the Center for Defense Studies.