China Shoots Itself in the Foot
Though China has benefitted from the U.S. military presence in the Asia-Pacific as much as anybody else in the region, it has always been anxious about the network of American allies on its periphery. Indeed, in recent years China has actively sought to drive wedges between the U.S. and its Asian allies — especially Japan and South Korea — and gradually tempt those countries away from America’s embrace. Beijing surely watched with great satisfaction the negative turn in U.S.-Japan relations following the Japanese election last year, not to mention the earlier U.S. disagreements with Seoul and Tokyo over how to best handle the Six Party Talks.
Fortunately for us, some of China’s most troubling activities are driving America and her allies closer together. China’s maritime conduct in the Sea of Japan and East China Sea, especially recent naval exercises near Okinawa, brought renewed concern in Tokyo about the intentions underlying China’s naval buildup. Moreover, China’s response, at least to date, to the sinking of the Cheonan has reassured no one — its refusal to even accept the results of the investigation’s findings, let alone censure Pyongyang, is heightening wariness among China’s neighbors.
Still, some good may come of all this. There have been several positive developments in the aftermath of the Cheonan’s sinking: the U.S. and Japan have resolved their basing dispute; the U.S. and South Korea are deepening their already close military ties; and South Korea and Japan, who often find it so difficult to get along, are cooperating in responding to a common threat.
Military modernization programs across the region — in India, Southeast Asia, and Australia — are evidence of greater concerns about China’s own buildup. Asia, then, is not only “ripe for rivalry,” as Princeton’s Aaron Friedberg once put it, but is ripe for alliance-building as well.
If Washington can take advantage of this moment both to strengthen its long-standing alliances and to build relationships with new partners — as well as to tie those allies and partners more closely to each other — it can be better assured of a stable and peaceful 21st-century Asia. And we can all thank China for shooting itself in the foot.
